000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N77W TO 10N115W TO 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 97W-105W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N106W TO 05N119W HAS OVER 
110 KT SW JET CORE ADVECTING ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ACROSS MEXICO INTO GULF OF MEXICO SUPPLYING AMPLE ENERGY TO COLD 
FRONT PRESENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA KEEPS MOISTURE FUNNELED NW OF YUCATAN PENINSULA 
WHILE DRYING OUT REMAINDER OF CENTYRAL AMERICA AND EPAC E OF 95W.  
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RACING AROUND TROUGH AXIS N OF 
32N EXPECTED TO PROMPT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN TEXAS 
AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  

UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIES OUT MOST OF E PAC 
N OF 08N W OF 116W.  MOSTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONECTION WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTERS NOTED ALONG ITCZ W OF 132W.

AT THE SURFACE...
HEALTHY COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CORNER OF BASIN FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W 
WITH STRONG SW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LARGE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TRAILING NOT TOO FAR BEHIND.  FRONT LOSES 
INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STUBBORN WELL ANCHORED HIGH PRES CENTER 
1020 MB ALONG 125W WHICH REFUSES TO BUDGE...SHIFTING FRONT N OF AREA 
DIMINISHING WINDS.  HOWEVER...NW SWELL FROM SYSTEM ALREADY TOPPING 
19 FT PROPAGATE SE THROUGH BASIN TO REACH AS FAR S AS EQUATOR BY SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH BREEZE ACROSS GULF TO BE SHORT LIVED AS 
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT RUSHES THROUGH NW GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED 
TO REACH FAR INTO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES 
DAMMING COLD AIR AGAINST MOUNTAINS AND FUNNELING INTO ANOTHER STORM 
EVENT ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.  SEAS BUILD TO 18 FT LATE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NW CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND INTO TROPICAL EPAC HAS BROUGHT STRONG BREEZE ACROSS GULF.  WINDS 
VEER NE TO E OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING SPEEDS IN GULF OF FONSECA BELOW 
20 KT.  OTHERWISE STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 
88W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N BREEZE ACROSS PANAMA SPILLING INTO GULF OF 
PANAMA EXPECTED TO LOSE SUPPORT FROM LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WITHIN 
NEXT 24 HRS EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHNG FLOW BELOW 20 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES