000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JAN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 04N77W TO 03N85W TO 09N110W TO 08N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. ...DISCUSSION... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 115W-120W N OF 12N WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FRI AND MERGE INTO THE LONGWAVE BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 10N120W AND TURNS SHARPLY NWD THROUGH 20N113W THEN EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 100-120 KT OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC WHICH INCREASED TO 140-175 KT OVER THE SRN PLAINS OF THE CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO. A VAST AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED OVER A POOL OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 16N112W TO 07N117W. THE CURRENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WELL INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH THE AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET ON ITS SE SIDE PULL NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER N WATERS...A 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 34N126W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 22N140W...IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE STUBBORN RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO NW WATERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NW SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 18 FT IN FAR NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WILL REMAIN HIGHEST...IN THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE...OVER NW WATERS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS RESPITE IN THE WINDS IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR S INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS WELL S INTO SE MEXICO ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SE MEXICAN COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN FRI AFTERNOON AND REACH STORM FORCE BY LATE SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 18 FT BY LATE SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODIFIED COLD AIR BEHIND THE OLD NW CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC HAS BROUGHT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE VEERED MORE NE TO E OVERNIGHT...DECREASING THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA BELOW 20 KT. EXPECT THIS COOL PLUME TO ERODE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HR...BUT NE TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...KEEPING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 89W FRI AND SAT. GULF OF PANAMA...NLY FLOW HAS BEEN SPILLING FROM THE CARIBBEAN S ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...WITH AN NORTHERLY WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 KT. THIS NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRI AND DECREASE BELOW 20 KT LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB