000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JAN 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 03N79W TO 09N110W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 115W-120W WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FRI AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INTENSIFY TO OVER 100 KT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE POOL OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 05N110W TO 06N113W. THE CURRENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WELL INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH THE AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET ON ITS SE SIDE PULL NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER N WATERS...A 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N126W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 23N140W...IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE STUBBORN RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO NW WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NW SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 18 FT IN FAR NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WILL REMAIN HIGHEST...IN THE 15 FT TO 20 FT RANGE...OVER NW WATERS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1636 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS RESPITE IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR S INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS WELL S INTO SE MEXICO ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO AGAIN TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SE MEXICAN COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND REACH STORM FORCE BY SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 12 FT AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODIFIED COLD AIR BEHIND THE OLD NW CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC HAS BROUGHT WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE VEERED MORE NE TO E OVERNIGHT...DECREASING THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA BELOW 20 KT. EXPECT THIS COOL PLUME TO ERODE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HR...BUT NE TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...KEEPING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 89W FRI AND SAT. GULF OF PANAMA...NLY FLOW HAS BEEN SPILLING FROM THE CARIBBEAN S ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...WITH AN NORTHERLY WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 KT. THIS NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRI AND DECREASE BELOW 20 KT LATE FRI. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY SPILL SW INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT. EXPECT THE INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO YIELD NW TO N WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT BY SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB