000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071014 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JAN 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 03N84W TO 09N117W TO 06N129W TO 08N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM OF 09N110W. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING BEYOND THIS AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 11N150W TO BEYOND 33N133W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHARPEN THIS MORNING AS ID MOVES SLOWLY E...AND EXTENDED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA S TO 17N122W AND THEN MERGES WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SMALL VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 08N134W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF 126W AND THESE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER PANAMA AND IS AIDING IN PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND 105W...WITH CORE WIND SPEEDS TO 120KT MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO CREATING EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ITCZ...AND HAS BEEN SUSTAINING A MODEST SIZED AREA OF DEEP CNVTN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CENTERED ALONG 09N110W...WHERE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE INTO THE S HALF OF MEXICO IN THE SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N127W....WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 8N-16N W OF 115W. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS AREA ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 115W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES IS AIDING IN FRESH NELY INFLOW ALONG THE N SIDE OF THE ITCZ TO 12N. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE IN 6-9 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO WEAKENS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD PUSHES FAR S INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS WELL S INTO SE MEXICO ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO AGAIN TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SE MEXICAN COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE WINDS TO INITIATE LATE TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN FRI AFTERNOON WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 45 KT BY FRI EVENING. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 12 FT AGAIN FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA HAS SHOWN A LARGE SWATH OF NE 20 TO 30 KT WINDS THE PAST 24 HOURS...EXTENDING N TO THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH WINDS APPEARING TO HAVE VEERED MORE NE TO E OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOW BRINGING MODIFIED COLD AIR BEHIND THE OLD NW CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC. EXPECT THIS COOL PLUME TO REMAIN NEARLY STATUS QUO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY 48 HRS. NLY FLOW HAS BEEN SPILLING FROM THE CARIBBEAN S ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AROUND 20 KT PAST 24 HOURS...WITH AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWING THIS CONTINUING. LOOK FOR THIS FRESH NLY FLOW TO PERSIST ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST UNDER 20 KT BY 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN JUST BEFORE ENTERING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BEING BLOCKED BY THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. HOWEVER BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NW SWELL THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A NEW PULSE OF THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING AND REACH THE E OF 100W LATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING