000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070349 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JAN 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N79W 4N90W 6N100W 8N110W 7N123W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-110W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W-119W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-132W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS 32N133W TO 20N140W. A 100-115 KT JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE N AND E SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N136W THEN SSE TO 15N130W WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 95 KT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 27N128W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER INTO THE TROPICS EXTENDS FROM 20N122W TO 5N130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N111W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE TOWARDS MEXICO ON THE SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS CENTERED NEAR 7N84W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N128W....WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 9N-15N W OF 120W. TWO TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 7N117W TO 13N113W AND THE OTHER FROM 7N123W TO NEAR 11N121W. THESE TROUGHS ARE CONTINUING TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITH SUPPORT OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO WEAKENS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD PUSHES FAR S INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS WELL S INTO SE MEXICO ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO AGAIN TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SE MEXICAN COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE WINDS BEGINNING ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 45 KT BY FRI EVENING. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD INTO LARGE VALUES AGAIN FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER ON WED SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF NE 20 TO 30 KT WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECT GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY 48 HRS WITH GULF OF PANAMA DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT. N WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY FRI MORNING. A WINDSAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED AN AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS N OF 5N AND BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE