000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 2N79W 5N100W 8N110W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 
106W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS 32N133W TO 20N140W. A 100-115 KT JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE N 
AND E SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N136W
THEN SSE TO 15N130W WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 95 KT. A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 
27N128W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER INTO THE TROPICS EXTENDS 
FROM 20N122W TO 5N130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS N OF 
THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM SE OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N111W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE TOWARDS MEXICO ON 
THE SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH. 

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS OFF 
THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS CENTERED NEAR 7N84W. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 100W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE 
ITCZ WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. 

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N128W....WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. FLOW 
AROUND THE RIDGE ARE PRODUCING TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 
8N-15N W OF 120W. THREE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE 
FIRST EXTENDS FROM 13N110W TO 5N113W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TOUGH FROM 9N-13N. 
SECOND TROUGH HAS AXIS FROM 11N119W TO 6N121W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
11N137W TO 6N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT.

E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN DECREASE SOME ON FRI.

N WINDS AT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 
BELOW 20 KT BY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS