000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050944 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JAN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 06N96W TO 09N113W TO 07N128W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STRETCHING THROUGH FORECAST WATERS ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR 07N128W NE TO 14N122W...TO 25N110W...AND THEN E ALONG 25N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT S OF THIS JET AXIS...WITH A WIDE BAND OF CIRRUS SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE JET AXIS TO 102W WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD COVERING MUCH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS SEEN N OF 25N ALONG 130W...WHILE SE OF THE ABOVE SRN STREAM JET...UPPER RIDGING EXTENDED FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 06N88W NW TO SRN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N130W TO 06N133W WAS MOVING FROM UNDERNEATH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SRN STREAM UPPER JET...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH UNDER INCREASINGLY MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS INDICATED FROM 14N110W TO 10N114. THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARD THIS SURFACE TROUGH...BRINGING TOGETHER AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE EDGE OF THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N125W WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPROACHING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES JUST NW OF FORECAST WATERS STRETCHING CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM 36N140W TO 27N150W. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FOUND BEHIND THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...BUT WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS SE OF THE FRONT WERE NEAR 20 KT AT THIS TIME AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ITS NW. DESPITE THIS REINFORCING ENERGY...THE LEADING FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER NW WATERS THROUGH WED. SWELL FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS TODAY...BRINGING SEAS TO 17 FT BY WED EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ HAS INDUCED 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 16N PRIMARILY W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 113/114W. GAP WINDS...A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 03 UTC SUGGESTED WINDS ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WERE BLOWING 35-45 KT...BUT UNFORTUNATELY MISSED THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS TYPICALLY OCCUR. CONSIDERING THE BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN MEXICO...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT WINDS ARE AT STORM FORCE TONIGHT AS A NEW SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BLOWS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH SEAS BUILDING 10 TO 15 FT. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO GALE FORCE BY 24 HOURS AND THEN FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED EVENING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THU. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL WED MORNING AND THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE WED TO AROUND 20 KT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 01Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT WINDS FUNNELING SSE THROUGH THE GULF...FROM THE ISLA DE TIBURON BEYOND THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO 22N...WHERE A SCATTERING OF CRUISERS REPORTED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AT 06 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ERODES. OTHERWISE...SEAS ACROSS THE EPAC E OF 100W ARE BEING DOMINATED BY SRN HEMI LONG PERIOD SW SWELL AT JUST UNDER 6 FT...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WED. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW TO W SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING