000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JAN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CAN BE FOUND ALONG 04N77W TO 08N110W TO 09N119W TO 08N129W TO 06N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STRETCHING THROUGH FORECAST WATERS ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR 11N125W NE TO 20N118W...TO 25N102W...AND THEN E ALONG 25N THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT S OF THIS JET AXIS...WITH A WIDE BAND OF CIRRUS SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIMARILY E OF THE JET AXIS TO 102W WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD COVERING MUCH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N128W TO 05N132W IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH UNDER INCREASINGLY MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND IS CONVERGING CLOSER TO ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N110W TO 04N113. THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARD THIS SURFACE TROUGH...BRINGING TOGETHER THE AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE EDGE OF THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N126W WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ON ITS WESTERN SIDE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES JUST NW OF FORECAST WATERS STRETCHING CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM 32N145W TO 25N152W. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...BUT WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS ARE ONLY 20 KT AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO THE 1536 WINDSAT PASS. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ITS NW. DESPITE THIS REINFORCING ENERGY...THE LEADING FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER NW WATERS THROUGH WED. SWELL FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW WATERS TUE...BRINGING SEAS TO 17 FT BY WED EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ HAS INDUCED 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 16N PRIMARILY W OF 120W. GAP WINDS...A WINDSAT PASS FROM 1218 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 34 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 1558 ASCAT PASS MISSED THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN MEXICO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS ARE EXCEEDING GALE FORCE AT THIS TIME. THESE GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT AS A NEW SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STORM EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO A GALE TUE EVENING AND FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WED. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL WED MORNING. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1734 UTC SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ERODES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER