000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 4N78W 6N90W 5N95W 9N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM
105W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS 32N131W TO 25N140W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH EXTENDS THE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TO 29N122W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER INTO THE TROPICS EXTENDS
FROM 20N125W TO 8N132W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS S 
OF 20N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N123W TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE THE
WINDS INCREASE TO 120 KT...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE ON THE SW
FLOW E OF THE TROUGH. 

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS CENTERED NEAR 3N88W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES
THE AREA S OF 18N E OF105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS HAS
SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. 

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 33N126W....WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE ARE PRODUCING
TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. A COUPLE OF TROUGH ARE ANALYZED 
ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 11N109W TO A 1007 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 8N112W TO 5N113W. ANOTHER TROUGH HAS AXIS FROM
12N124W TO 3N131W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE TONIGHT THEN 
DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE MIDDAY TUE THROUGH WED.
 
E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AND TUE THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 
30 KT WED.

N WINDS AT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY WED. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
DGS