000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 02N79W TO 
06N90W TO 08N124W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 06N106W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N132W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF 11N115W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 25N140W TO A CREST AMPLIFYING E NEAR 28N128W. A TROPICAL 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 05N95W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A SHARP CREST AT 07N130W...WITH THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CONTINUING NE ALONG POINTS 16N125W TO 
23N107W TO 19N87W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS IN PHASE WITH 
THE LOW LEVEL ITCZ...AND ENHANCED CONVECTION EARLIER. UPPER 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 132W 
AND SPREADS N UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...CONCENTRATING INTO A 
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
18N100W TO 23N86W AND CONTINUING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WELL 
BEYOND BERMUDA.

N OF THIS TROPICAL RIDGE IS A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVING E 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH IS NEGATIVE 
TILT AND JUST BRUSHES THE AREA TO THE N OF 3ON ALONG 127W. A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING CENTRAL N AMERICA EXTENDS S TO A BASE 
OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 23N103W AND IS FLATTENING THE TROPICAL 
RIDGE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E 
OVER THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 118W...EXCEPT FOR DRY AIR NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH. VERY DRY UPPER 
AIR IS INDICATED S OF 15N E OF 100W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 32N125W 
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 
105W. EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CYCLONES HAVE BEEN APPEARING WITHIN THE 
ITCZ PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING 
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MAINLY E OF THESE LOW LEVEL SWIRLS. 
CURRENTLY AN EMBEDDED TROUGH IS NOTED NEAR 07N108W AND ANOTHER 
NEAR 07N125W...AND YET ANOTHER MAY BE FORMING NEAR 07N134W. 
EXPECT ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW TO SHIFT FROM NE TO 
E NEAR THESE INTERMITTENT FEATURES.    

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT STRONG GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE LATE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 
GALE FORCE MIDDAY TUE THROUGH WED.
 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH TODAY...THEN SPREAD N TO THE COAST AT 90W...AND INCREASE 
TO TO 20 TO 30 KT TUE...DIMINISHING SOME WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT TUE AND WED. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
NELSON