000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 02N79W 
TO 05N90W TO 05N113W TO 08N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
127W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE 
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STRETCHING THROUGH FORECAST WATERS ALONG AN 
AXIS FROM NEAR 10N135W NE TO 22N115W AND THEN E ALONG 22N INTO 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT S 
OF THIS JET AXIS AS DENOTED BY THE CIRRUS BAND EXTENDING FROM 
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR 
09N122W NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO 17N120W INTO MEXICO NORTH OF 
MAZATLAN NEAR 21N105W. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY SHOWS A POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN THIS 
LOW AND A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N106W TO 
02N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES WITHIN 120 
NM E OF THIS TROUGH FROM 05N TO 09N. THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER 
JET IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AND THE AREA OF AVAILABLE MOSITURE AND UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ON ITS SE EDGE...ALONG WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 
CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE WITH IT.

AT THE SURFACE...1019 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N124W WILL REMAIN 
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IMPEDING THE 
PROGRESS OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ON ITS WESTERN SIDE. THE 
COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS EARLIER SUN HAS WEAKENED TO A FRONTAL 
TROUGH FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W. SHIP REPORTS FROM 2100 AND 0000 
UTC STILL SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 210 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
AT 20 KT N OF 26N. WHILE THIS FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE 
MON...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH 
CURRENTLY LIES JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP 
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER NW WATERS THROUGH TUE. SWELL FRONT 
THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW WATERS TUE...BRINGING SEAS TO 14 
FT BY TUE NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...A WINDSAT PASS FROM 1236 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 40 KT 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN MORNING. A SUBSEQUENT ASCAT PASS 
FROM 1618 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY TO 30 KT...BUT THIS PASS MISSED 
SOME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WIND SWATH. CONSIDERING ASCAT 
TENDS TO RUN TOO SLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THIS RANGE...GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL BELIEVED TO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. N WINDS AT GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
STORM FORCE MON EVENING AS A NEW SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR 
PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE INTO TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS MOVING THROUGH 
PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 
20 KT FROM 25N TO 30N. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO DATA TO 
SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRES 
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS 
MON...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES HERE 
AND OVER NORTH WATERS COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER 
THE EASTERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS A RESULT...DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT 
AROUND SUNRISE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
SCHAUER