000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JAN 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 02N80W TO 06N92W TO 05N105W TO 08N123W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A VERY PROGRESSIVE WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N115W SW TO 23N117W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED FURTHER W EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N128W TO 20N131W TO 11N140W...AND IS EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH THE EXTENDS WELL NW OF THE AREA AT 30N131W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN BOTH TROUGHS WHILE BROAD LARGE SCALE RIDGING HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA W OF THE SECOND TROUGH. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 5N87W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY UPPER AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S OF 13N E OF 100W AND S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. ELSEWHERE TO THE SE OF THE ABOVE TROUGHS BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA N OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 02N101W. ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE...AND IS FURTHER AIDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09N106W TO 05N107W AND A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 09N122W. THE EASTERN-MOST WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE AREA OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. FAST WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 118W AND N OF THE AREA TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N130W TO 17N1100W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IS FUELING AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH A BAND OF CIRRUS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N130W TO 20N115W. AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N126W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 25N140W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MON. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR SE TO S WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL CAN BE FOUND EXTENDING E OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 135W. AFTER THIS FRONT DISSIPATES...LOOK FOR THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND THE NEXT FRONT TO KEEP S WINDS AROUND 20 KT OVER NW WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE MON EVENING AS A NEW SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR PUSHES SOUTH TROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHES THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUE. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT N OF 25N ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUE...DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY SUNSET TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE/SCHAUER