000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JAN 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W TO 9N89W TO 6N100W TO 8N115W TO 7N126W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-127W...AND WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 132W. ...DISCUSSION... A VERY PROGRESSIVE WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N117W SW TO 23N118W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED FURTHER W EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N131W TO 20N134W TO 11N140W...AND IS EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH THE EXTENDS WELL NW OF THE AREA AT 30N131W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN BOTH TROUGHS WHILE BROAD LARGE SCALE RIDGING HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA W OF THE SECOND TROUGH. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 5N87W WITH A RIDGE NNE ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY UPPER AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S OF 15N E OF 100W AND S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. ELSEWHERE TO THE SE OF THE ABOVE TROUGHS BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA N OF 7N BETWEEN 95W AND 132W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 1N101W. ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE...AND IS FURTHER AIDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N113W TO 7N118W. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE AREA OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. FAST WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 120W...AND N OF 27N E OF 121W TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N135W TO 18N125W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IS FUELING ANOTHER TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 10N113W TO 20N100W. THE MOISTURE PLUME THEN TURNS EASTWARD FAINING OUT AND COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N126W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 105W. THE RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO 25N140W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR SE TO S WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SWELL TO THE N OF 28N AND WITHIN ABOUT DEG E OF THE FRONT LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS THAT HAVE SPREAD INTO THE AREA W OF 90W ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY POSSIBLY TO STORM FORCE NEAR TUE MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON MORNING. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT S OF 28N ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED FROM 24N TO TO 29N BY MON MORNING WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE INTO TUE MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE