000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 05N77W TO 
09N112W TO  05N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 07N103W TO 08N109W TO 07N130W TO 08N136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W HAS BECOME 
COMPLICATED. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO 
15N139W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IMMEDIATELY W OF THIS TROUGH AND 
AMPLIFYING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 28N. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 07N125W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO WELL BEYOND 32N125W. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER 
EASTERN N AMERICA HAS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING E 
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE AND CONTINUING SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 
32N106W TO 23N115W INTO AN NEWLY FORMED UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 07N103W. CONVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING 
TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS UPPER CYCLONE.

UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE N SPREADING E OVER THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 
120W. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N135W TO 18N125W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IS FUELING ANOTHER TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 10N113W TO 20N100W.
THE MOISTURE PLUME TURNS EASTWARD FAINING OUT AND COVERING THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH DRY UPPER AIR AIR 
INDICATED S OF 17N E OF 100W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 32N125W 
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
105W. THE RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF A COLD 
FRONT TO ALONG 32N128W TO 25N140W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS THAT HAVE 
SPREAD INTO THE AREA W OF 90W ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO A MINIMAL GALE LATE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO A 
VERY STRONG GALE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT AND 
BELOW 20 KT MON NIGHT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT MON AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH MON THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT MON NIGHT AND 
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
NELSON