000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 05N78W 04N95W 09N110W 05N130W 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W 
AND 120W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...
OVERALL PATTERN HAS BECOME AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY E OF 127W. 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES 
IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
GENERALLY N OF 25N W OF 127W. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH 
AXIS ALONG 129W AND N OF 28N WAS MOVING N OF THE AREA WHILE 
ANOTHER ALONG 138W N OF 25N WAS ENTERING THE FAR W PORTION OF 
THE AREA. BOTH SHORTWAVES WERE ACCOMPANIED BY MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWER ACTIVITY. 
 
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS 
ALONG 32N121W TO 07N123W WAS DRIFTING E. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM 
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 13N140W TO 20N120W THEN CURVED ESE TO 
17N110W. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE JET 
WITH SOME TRANSVERSE BANDING NOTED AS WELL SUGGESTING UPPER 
LEVEL TURBULENCE. A SHEARED MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS SW BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BASE NEAR 
15N112W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS W OF THE TROUGH 
TO 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO. SW FLOW BETWEEN 
THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NE INTO CENTRAL AND NW MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE DEEP TROPICS CENTERED JUST OFF THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 9N85W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 
15N E OF 105W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ 
E OF 108W. 

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N126W 1023 MB WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE SHOULD 
BLOCK ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST W OF 
THE AREA. ELY TRADES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE ARE IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE FROM 6N-22N W OF 115W...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TO 20 
KT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER TIMELY WINDSAT PASS AT 0002 UTC  
INDICATED THAT GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 35-40 KT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE EARLY SUN...HOWEVER A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL 
RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN LATE MON.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
COBB