000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 05N78W 04N100W 08N113W 05N130W 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W 
AND 118W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...
OVERALL PATTERN HAS BECOME AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY E OF 130W. 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES 
IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
GENERALLY N OF 27N W OF 130W. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH 
AXIS ALONG 132W AND N OF 28N WAS MOVING NE OF THE AREA WHILE 
ANOTHER ALONG 142 N OF 25N WAS APPROACHING THE FAR W PORTION OF 
THE AREA. 
 
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS 
ALONG 32N122W TO 10N125W WAS DRIFTING E. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM 
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 14N140W TO 20N127W THEN CURVED ESE TO 
18N115W. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE JET 
WITH SOME TRANSVERSE BANDING NOTED AS WELL SUGGESTING UPPER 
LEVEL TURBULENCE. A SHEARED MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE 
ARIZONA ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N110W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS W OF THE TROUGH TO 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER MEXICO. SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS 
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NE INTO CENTRAL AND NW 
MEXICO AND THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE DEEP TROPICS CENTERED JUST OFF THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 9N85W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF
15N E OF 105W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ITCZ.

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N126W 1025 MB WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE SHOULD 
BLOCK ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST W OF 
THE AREA. ELY TRADES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE ARE IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE FROM 6N-22N W OF 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EDGES OF ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES AND 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER MEXICO SUGGEST NLY WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DROPPED TO GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SUN...HOWEVER A NEW 
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN ON MON.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
COBB