000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE FLUCTUATES FROM 05N TO 07N TO 
THE E OF 140W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 135W AND 
142W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 07N140W WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING N MERGING WITH ANOTHER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 127W. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 135W WITH THE UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE N SPREADING N TO 1LONG 10N W OF 135W MERGING WITH 
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RACING NE INTO THE AREA LONG 17N140W. SOME 
UPPER MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE NORTHERN RIDGE IN THE AREA 
N OF 27N W OF 125W. A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA 
ALONG 32N120W TO 05N123W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W 
OF THIS TROUGH AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 30N108W TO 20N118W 
MERGING WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR S OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 
130W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 09N83W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND CRESTING 
ALONG POINTS 16N115W TO 27N108W TO 27N97W. UPPER MOISTURE 
ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE FROM 11N111W TO 21N105W TO 24N95W WHERE THE MOISTURE 
BEGINS TO EVAPORATE.
 
AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W WITH 
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 105W.
THE RIDGE SHOULD BLOCK THEN EASTERN PROGRESSION OF AN 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND BELOW GALE FORCE SUN...THEN 
INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
NELSON