000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 06N78W 04N90W 09N105W 05N120W 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 131W TO 140W.
  
...DISCUSSION...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 30N145W SE TO NEAR 24N141W IS APPROACHING THE 
NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FEATURE IS DISPLACING 
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE 
STILL COVERS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS 
THROUGH 32N126W TO 6N140W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE 
TROUGH WAS SPREADING OVER THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 130W. 

FURTHER E...A NARROW MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 
DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N121W TO 22N122W WAS 
MERGING WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 27N114W. EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING OVER 
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NOTED ABOVE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 115W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO. TROPICAL 
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE TOWARD CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE SW 
FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS CENTERED NEAR 
7N86W WITH A RIDGE NE ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 15N E OF 100W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.

A STATIONARY 1007 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
05N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED TO THE W AND SW OF THE LOW. 
A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N125W. THE ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 115W AND IS EXPECTED TO 
BLOCK AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. ELY TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE FROM 
5N-25N W OF 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIMELY 0020 UTC WINDSAT PASS INDICATED 
45+ KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS COUPLED WITH 
SEVERAL HOURS OF 30 TO 40 KT NLY WINDS AT MINATITLAN MEXICO AT 
THE ENTRANCE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SUGGESTS
THAT STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE LIKELY COMMENCED IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT 
BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO GALE FORCE ON SAT AND BELOW GALE FORCE 
BY SAT NIGHT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 90W 
DIMINISHING SOME ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
COBB