000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 06N78W 04N90W 09N105W 05N120W 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 134W 
TO 140W.
  
...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS THROUGH 32N130W TO 7N140W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N147W
IS MOVING ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE RIDGE. A NARROW MID TO 
UPPER TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 25N124W AND
WAS MERGING WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 27N115W. EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING OVER 
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 
115W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED NE TOWARD CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE SW FLOW BETWEEN 
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS CENTERED NEAR 
7N86W WITH A RIDGE NE ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 15N E OF 100W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 05N79W. A FEW 
SHOWERS ARE JUST W OF THE LOW. A 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 33N125W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W 
OF 115W AND IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE 
EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ELY TRADES IN THE 
20-25 KT RANGE ARE FROM 5N-25N W OF 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITHIN THE PAST HOUR NLY WINDS OF 30KT 
HAVE OCCURRED AT MINATITLAN MEXICO AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...SUGGESTING THAT GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE 
LIKELY COMMENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TO STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING 
BACK TO GALE FORCE ON SAT AND BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT NIGHT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 90W 
DIMINISHING SOME ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
COBB