000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 5N105W 4N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 
137W-140W.
  
...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...WITH AXIS 32N133W TO 7N140W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE RIDGE. A MID TO UPPER 
TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N115W TO 15N117W THEN SSE 
TO 5N111W. EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF 
THE RIDGE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER IS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE 
TOWARD CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE SW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH 
AND THE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS CENTERED NEAR 
7N86W WITH A RIDGE NE ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 15N E OF 100W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 5N80W. A FEW 
SHOWERS ARE JUST W OF THE LOW. A 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 32N124W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W 
OF 115W AND IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE 
EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ELY TRADES IN THE 
20-25 KT RANGE ARE FROM 5N-25N W OF 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AFTER LATER TODAY AND FURTHER INCREASE 
TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING SAT THEN DIMINISH TO 
GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUN AND BELOW GALE FORCE ON MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 90W 
DIMINISHING SOME ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
DGS