000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 06N78W 04N85W 08N100W 05N125W 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 80W TO 83W.

...DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STABLE FLOW PATTERN IN EVIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RATHER 
FLAT RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERALLY 
N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 128W...WITH AXIS FROM 32N123W TO 18N140W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NW MEXICO 
TO A SHEARED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N121W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND CLOUD FREE STABLE AIR IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS W OF 118W...THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE 
NW PART WHERE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH GRAZING THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED ITCZ CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. A 
90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 20N112W 
EXTENDING NE THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 120 KT IN AN AREA OF GENERAL CONFLUENCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDS 
ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED. THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 7N88W WITH RIDGE NWD TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES 1027 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N123W. ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 12N W OF 110W. TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W 
OF 110W ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FROM NEAR THE ITCZ TO 20N. 
A STATIONARY 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE E PORTION 
OF THE ITCZ NEAR 6N79W.

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 
LATE FRI. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT 
FRI BRIEFLY REACHING STORM FORCE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO GALE FORCE 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH FRI. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FRI 
NIGHT AND SAT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE AREA OF WINDS WITH 
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 20-25 KT. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
COBB