000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 07N97W TO 12N115W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 
113W TO 117W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N112W FORCED NE BY STRONG UPSTREAM 
RIDGE MOVING E.  AIR MASS CONFLUENCE CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN 300 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS. 
SUBTROPICAL JET TOPPING 150 KT EXTEND SE OF TROUGH THROUGH NRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO SRN GREAT PLAINS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER SRN GREAT PLAINS. 

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE FROM 10N 
TO 25N W OF 125W ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PRODUCED BY 
HEALTHY 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N141W.  TRADES 
ADDING WIND WAVES TO PERSISTENT NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED 
SEAS TO 12 FT RANGE.  PRES GRADIENT REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRES 
SYSTEM MOVES E ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST FORCED BY STRONG COLD 
FRONT APPROACHING FAR NW CORNER OF BASIN.

TWO WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS 1010 MB AT 08N90W AND ANOTHER 1011 MB 
AT 12N109W MOVE W CONTRIBUTE IN ATTRACTING FRESH S CROSS- 
EQUATORIAL BREEZE WITH ASSOCIATED SWELLS S OF 10N E OF 115W. 

BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER ROCKIES EXPECTED TO FORCE NEAR GALE NW 
WINDS INTO NRN HALF OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN NEXT 18 HRS.  
MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FALL SHORT IN WIND SPEEDS ALTHOUGH 
TIMING APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.  WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY 
AS LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS BECOME PREDOMINANT TO SYNOPTIC 
FEATURES.  EVENT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRES MOVES 
RATHER QUICKLY E RELAXING PRES GRADIENT BY LATE MON. 

$$
WALLY BARNES