000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 10N85W TO 06N100W TO 07N120W TO 10N131W TO 05N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
95W-105W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 115W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO E PAC WITH AXIS FROM GULF OF 
MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 12N117W TO CYCLONE 03N115W.  
WELL DEFINED UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE AT 16N122W DRIFTING E FORCES 
CONFLUENT AIR MASS 420 NM NW OF TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDING AIR KEEPING A DRY ATMOSPHERE.  DIFFLUENT FLOW S 
OF 10N W OF 120W ENHANCING PLENTY OF CONVECTION ALONG WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 10N135W IN ITCZ.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1014 MB AT 23N119W WEAKENS AS COLD FRONT FROM 
30N119W TO 27N130W BECOMES DIFFUSE...NOT WITHOUT FORCING 
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST N OF 
26N.  MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES W OF 120W ARE REINFORCED BY NEW 
HIGH PRES BEHIND COLD FRONT EXPANDING STRONG BREEZE AREA TO N 
OF 10N W OF 120W THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.   

GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FORECAST TO 
PERSIST TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES