000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...08N83W TO 05N106W TO 10N125W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
115W-125W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS W OF 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED WITH ANTICYCLONE AT 14N102W KEEPS DRY 
AIR MASS OVER ENTIRE REGION S OF 20N E OF 110W.  WEAK TROUGH 
EXTEND FROM 32N110W TO 04N123W ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NE INTO WESTERN CENTRAL MEXICO.  REMAINDER OF 
BASIN W OF TROUGH UNDER SHARP RIDGE CENTERED AT 12N140W WITH 
MOISTURE FEEDING ITCZ INSTABILITY W OF 129W. 

SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING E PAC NW CORNER APPEAR 
STRONGER WITH 100 KT SW JET CORE.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS 
WEAK AND BARELY ENTERS NW CORNER OF E PAC BEFORE FORCED N OF 32N 
BY RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS E PAC MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES W 
OF 115W FROM 10N-20N THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  LARGE LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL CONTINUE AFFECTING MOST OF E PAC W OF 100W EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FORECAST TO PEAK 
WITHIN 24 HRS THEN DIMINISH STEADILY TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY END 
OF FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES