000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W TO 11N91W TO 11N104W TO 9N115W TO 11N126W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 6N79W TO 6N85W TO 8N88W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 8N90W TO 7N95W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E KT IS LOCATED NEAR 14N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 26N115W...THEN NE TO ACROSS THE SW U.S. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 12N131W TO SW OF THE AREA NEAR 9N140W. YET ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 10N104W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 130W AND 130W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING NE ABOUT 18 KT IS NEAR 28N130W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 20N135W TO 15N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 14N140W...AND EXTENDS NE TO 18N130W AND NE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE BEFORE IT DIVES SE TO NEAR 18N106W. THE JET THEN ROUNDS THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ITS BASE REACHING S TO NEAR 12N101W. MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 60-70 KT NEAR THE JET CORE. TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH...MID/UPPER RIDGING HAS PUSHED SE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE JET STREAM...WITH ONLY NARROW SWATHS MOISTURE NOTED N OF 28N. LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW OVER THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 25N116W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 135W AND A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N126W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF NE-E TO 20 KT WINDS FROM ABOUT 12N TO 18N W OF 127W. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TSTM ACTIVITY S OF THE SE GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO WHERE CURRENTLY A STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR 11N91W. ISOLATED WEAK TSTM ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W. LOW AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NLY FLOW HAS BEEN SOURCE OF FORTIFICATION FOR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TIED TO THE LOW. LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A PRES GRADIENT THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE 180 NM NW AND 240 SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 10 FT. A 1010 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 13N107W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW IS UNDER NW-N UPPER SHEAR CREATED BY THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N115W SO IT REMAINS A SHEARED LOW WITH LOW CLOUD CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM ELSEWHERE W OF CENTER. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE CENTER. THESE TWO LOWS ARE TIED TO AN ELONGATED LOW PRES GYRE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 87W-100W. GAP WINDS... STRONG HIGH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1200 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT IN 60 NM WIDE SWATH FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN AROUND 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE