000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 92W MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW 
PRES CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AT 12N92W. ONLY ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W 12N100W 11N100W 13N105W 09115W 11N125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 90W-92W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 25N133W 
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW TO 
16N140W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NW OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK 55-65 KT JETSTREAM 
IS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N140W TO 19N125W. THE JET IS 
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ NEWD. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NW OF THE JET. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM 30N105W TO 18N98W.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
IS CENTERED NEAR 14N119W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 
20N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING 20 KT ELY WINDS W OF AROUND 130W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. A 1009 
MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 14N105W SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N129W TO 6N131W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 8N-10N.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS 
INCREASED THE N-NE WINDS TO 25-35 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 
HOURS.

$$
DGS