000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142117 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE OCT 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 1800 UTC THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW OF PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23N111W OR ABOUT 60 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LOW WAS MOVING W AT 7 KT. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1732 UTC SHOWED 20 KT WINDS PRIMARILY TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF PATRICIA HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FOLLOW A W TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISSIPATING FRI MORNING AFTER IT CROSSES 115W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 104W FROM 04N TO 14N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING THAT EXTENDS EAST TO THE COAST. THIS AREA ALSO INCLUDES A 1009 LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 08N93W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1556 UTC SHOWS THE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINNING TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 08N. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N89W TO 08N103W TO 11N115W TO 13N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 86W...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 136W AND 138W. TWO TROUGHS INTERSECT THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FROM 20N137W TO 14N138W. ANOTHER TROUGH...FROM 18N127W TO 10N128W HAS A 1012 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRES SYSTEM WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE ITCZ AT 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF THE LOW TO 10N AND ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... 1019 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 26N123W WILL MIGRATE NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC N OF THE FORECAST AREA PASSES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS N WATERS. STEERING FLOW FOR THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THIS RIDGE TO ITS NW THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND PATRICIA IS GENERATING 20 KT N TO NW WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN BAJA COAST N OF PATRICIA THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE HAS ALLOWED EASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE W OF 122W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE TROUGHS OVER W WATERS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THIS RIDGE WILL PREVENT THE NEXT COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...FROM MOVING INTO NW WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING NW SWELL THAT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. SHIP A8RH6 REPORTED 11 FT SEAS NEAR 30N138W AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE SUBSIDED TO 9 FT NEAR 30N139W AT 1800 UTC. TO ITS SOUTH...SHIP ZCDA9 REPORTED 13 FT SEAS AT 1800 UTC NEAR 25N140W. AS DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 210 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE W AROUND 5 KT WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS W IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE HOUSING THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION LIES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM SE OF 15N96W. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRI AND LIES IN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A 35 KT EASTERLY UPPER JET FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. MANY OF THE FORECAST MODELS WRAP THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HENRI INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND SHOW DEEPENING OF THE OF LOW PRES SYSTEM AS A RESULT. $$ SCHAUER