000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E IS LOCATED NEAR 
17.3N 108.4W OR ABOUT 350 NM S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND MOVING N-NW AT 5 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED 
OVER THE SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING 
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 
ITS ORGANIZATION. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME 
A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT AND RREMAIN A MINIMUL TROPICAL STORM 
BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE WEST 
SEMICIRCLE. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W FROM 03N TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING W IN TANDEM WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N98W. THE 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS OUT ABOUT 300 
NM FROM THE CENTER. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 13N. THE CONVECTION HAS 
DECREASED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS 
OF BEING ORGANIZED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. OTHER MORE ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITH 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE ITCZ AXIS 
WAS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 06N86W TO 12N95W TO 13N105W TO 
09N120W TO 13N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 05N80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA FROM 08N 
TO 10N FROM 116W TO 125W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 30N100W TO 20N115W TO 
3N125W TO 23N140W. MOST OF THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN 
THE LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF 
THE AREA THROUGH 32N136W TO 27N140W. MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR 
THE FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
FRONT NORTH OF 31N. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH 
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.

EXCEPT FOR THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. THIS FLOW 
IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT EAST OF 115W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ WITH AREAS 
OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.  

TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 16N134W TO 10N137W AND IS MOVING 
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR THE TROUGH.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 117W. ELSEWHERE 
EXCEPT FOR THE TROUGH AND LOW MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH 
COVERS THE AREA.

$$
LL