000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 122.2W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING W AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD SWIRL UNDER WLY VERTICAL SHEAR VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. 
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS RAPIDLY 
WEAKENING SYSTEM. NORA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS IN WNW DIRECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 7N78W 10N105W 16N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 101W-104W AND 
WITHIN 220 NM S OF AXIS FROM 110W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N131W
WITH TROUGH TO 27N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
STABLE AIR AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 20N115W TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATON 
NEAR 15N136W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 135W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 9N103W. A LARGE 
AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS S OF 15N E OF 115W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 115W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 120W. A 1008 
MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N138W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

$$
DGS