000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N122W MOVING WNW AT A 
BRISK 15-17 KT. WHILE THE SYSTEM'S EXACT LOCATION IS 
UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT A CENTER MAY BE FORMING CLOSER TO 
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. 
MODEST EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUGGEST 
THAT THE LOW MAY FURTHER DEVELOP IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
CURRENTLY... THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...09N78W TO 
09N86W TO 08N100W TO 10N110W TO 14N119W.  AXIS CONTINUES AGAIN 
FROM 13N122W TO 08N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS RESTRICTED TO THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED LOW NEAR 14N122W AND A SMALL SECTION OF THE ITCZ. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE 
DRIVEN BY AN ENE-WSW ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N140W. THE U.S. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 
IR-200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA IS 
UNDER THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND 
THAT THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENTS ARE PROPOGATING INTO OUR AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE REMNANTS OF JIMENA ARE STILL PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA 
PENINSULA AS A OPEN TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NO DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN ALSO CONTINUE AS A CONVECTION-LESS 
LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IN THE STRATO-CUMULUS NEAR 16N128W. IT IS 
EXPECTED THAT THIS WILL DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW EVENING...BUT THAT 
IS WHAT WAS SAID YESTERDAY.

$$
LANDSEA