000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER...AT 04/2100 UTC...NEAR 27.3N 112.4W...VERY NEAR 
SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. JIMENA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 5 KT.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE READ 
THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ 
WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR 
MORE INFORMATION. EXPECT JIMENA TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND 
THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED 
MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS REACHING 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ...
09N80W 08N90W 09N100W 12N111W 10N119W 10N130W 11N140W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND WITHIN
60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N116W IN THE ITCZ. 
DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
109W AND 123W...AND FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.
THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THE SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT WERE OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...AND 
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED
IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 
89W AND 103W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEAR AN AREA OF ELONGATED 
EAST-TO-WEST UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W 
AND 98W...A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE 
NORTH THAT COVERS MOST OF MEXICO...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW NEAR 10N TO THE WEST OF 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TO RIDING ALONG JUST TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STILL IS EVEN MORE TO THE WEST AND 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO 22N120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA. 

THE REMNANT 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN IS NEAR 
18N124W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
MT