000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA AT 02/2100 UTC IS NEAR 26.4N
112.3W...OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF SAN BUENAVENTURA MEXICO. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT ABOUT 60 MILES/100 KM TO THE SOUTH OF 
SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. JIMENA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/
WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR JIMENA 
CARRIES THE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THEN IT MOVES JIMENA INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. 
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTER OF JIMENA MADE LANDFALL 
BETWEEN PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND SAN JUANICO MEXICO. HURRICANE 
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES/55 KM FROM THE 
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES/220 KM. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE 
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL 
FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 110W AND 112W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W/101W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING 
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE.
IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED 
ONLY TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

07N78W TO 08N95W TO 12N110W...CONTINUING FROM 14N120W TO 
06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST OF 90W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N103W 14N108W
13N116W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS TO THE WEST OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 38N135W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N139W BEYOND 28N142W. 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 400 NM TO THE EAST 
OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF JIMENA 
AND ACROSS MEXICO IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. BETWEEN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND 
INTO ALL OF MEXICO AND THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE STILL EXISTS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF
30N FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA.

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN WAS NEAR 19N121W...
MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS 
WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THIS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
STATIONARY AND PERHAPS DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N108W IN THE ITCZ...
SURROUNDED BY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

$$
MT