000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 08N ALONG 95W MOVE W AT 15 KT APPROACHING 
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CURTAIL ANY 
CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION.  ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION QUICKLY DIMINISHING. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N-16N ALONG 108W MOVE W AT 15 KT STILL 
UNDER ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AT A LESSER DEGREE...BUT 
NOT EXPECTED TO BE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NEXT 48 HRS.  
DIMINISHING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST W OF AXIS ALONG 
ITCZ.  

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N-15N ALONG 123W MOVE W AT 15 KT ENTERING 
AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WHERE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE INDUCES 
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION.  GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GIVE SHORT LIVED 
CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION TO WAVE DURING NEXT 48 HRS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 10N110W TO 10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W.  
ALL OTHER CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 25N132W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SW TO 
23N140W.  DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM GUILLERMO OUTFLOW ADVECTED NE 
ACROSS NW CORNER OF E PAC.  WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
19N123W HAS WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING S TO FRINGES OF TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 123W INDUCING MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH 
ENHANCES SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WAVE N OF 11N.

BROAD SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 
25N109W HAS RIDGE EXTEND S INTO TROPICAL E PAC BETWEEN  
101W-120W.  MODERATE NE SHEAR CURTAILS CONVECTION OVER TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 108W N OF ITCZ.   DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER 
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N99W WITH TROUGH S ACROSS SRN MEXICO TO 
11N100W CREATING ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT TO TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER N OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 20N113W 
SQUEEZES GRADIENT ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FORCING MODERATE 
TO FRESH NW BREEZE.  RIDGE WEAKENS AND BREEZE DIMINISH WITHIN 
NEXT 30 HRS.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL FRESH BREEZE AND 8 FT SWELLS AFFECTING AREA S 
OF 08N E OF 100W EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN NEXT  
48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES