000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.5N 129.7W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 940 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 05 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 
10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. A 
WELL DEFINED EYE IS OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS 
OBSERVED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 
TONIGHT THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BEGIN THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE NEAR 18.4N 123.1W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 996 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 05 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT  
10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 
18N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE POINT 15.5N122W. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THURSDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND IS NORTH 
OF 05N ALONG 79W AND IS MOVING WEST 15 KT. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT 
OF CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AND IS DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. 
THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZED BY ANY CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 03N TO 16N ALONG 110W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
07N110W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA NORTH OF 04N EAST OF 82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
POINT 09N86W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS MOVED 
NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N123W TO 16N140W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS WEST OF 125W. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 130W. NO CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN THIS PLUME.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDS 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 105W TO 
115W. THIS AREA IS MOSTLY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
HOWEVER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 
THE TROUGH AREA. ALSO CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE ITCZ SOUTH 
OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 107W IN THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST 
OF THE TROUGH.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW INCLUDING OVER THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE AREA WEST OF 
135W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE 
AREA EAST OF 105W IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT RESULTING TO THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED ITCZ CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY THE 
DIFFLUENCE.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W 
AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL 
CYCLONES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD 
SURFACE TROUGH.
  
GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 90W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE O DAYS.

$$
LL