000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 07N ALONG 92W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
ABOUT 18 KT THE PAST FEW DAYS. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 13N94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 04N ALONG 102W AND IS MOVING W AT 18 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
ENHANCED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 13N.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 117W HAS MOVED W AROUND 17 
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE W 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE 
ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 
120W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 12N ALONG 124W AND HAS MOVED 
W AT ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING 
THROUGH AN AREA THAT HAS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. 
CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED N OF 10N BUT FAIRLY WELL ENHANCED FROM 
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. 

...ITCZ...
THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG POINTS FROM 08N78W TO 10N98W T0 09N108W 
TO 10N117W TO 07N128W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N79W...FROM 09N TO 
15N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 
112W...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 15N114W TO 08N127W TO 
07N137W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W TO E INTO THE AREA ALONG 
10N140W TO 08N135W AND WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG 
THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 
135W AND 146W AND ALSO JUST S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NEARLY 
IN PHASE WITH THE ITCZ. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER 
THE BORDER OF OF NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA AND OLD MEXICO NEAR 
31N109W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S TO A RIDGE CREST OVER OLD 
MEXICO AT 22N103W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
BELIZE WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE 
DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 86W AND 110W...AND IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL 
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...WITH THE WELL 
DEFINED PLUME NOW CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO AND FLORIDA AND OVER COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. 
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO SPREADING S OF THE PACIFIC 
ITCZ...BUT APPEARS TO EVAPORATE ALONG 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
      
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 34N138W 
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A BASE AT 16N137W. CYCLONIC 
FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 17N W OF 129W WITH DEBRIS 
MOISTURE INDICATED N OF 21N AND DRY AIR OBSERVED FROM 21N TO 
134N WITHIN THE TROUGH. A UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 25N128W AND 
ANOTHER IS NEAR 21N133W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED FROM 12N TO 
25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
    
GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TO ALONG 102W ARE AT 15 TO 25 KT. ASSOCIATED NE TO E 
SWELLS IN THIS AREA ARE MERGING WITH S AND SW SWELLS THAT 
ORIGINATED IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO 
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND TUE. 

ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO 
MOVE N REACHING THE EQUATOR NEAR 100W MON.

$$
NELSON