000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE CARLOS IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 129.0W AT 15/0900 UTC 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 5 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 972 MB. THE EYE IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 10 NM DIAMETER AND IS 
SURROUNDED BY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 55 NM NE AND 
WITHIN 25 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. CARLOS IS EXPECTED REMAIN 
A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
STORM AS HE PASSES W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE E... 
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E IS VERY DIFFICULT TO 
LOCATE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IS ESTIMATED NEAR 
14.2N 114.6W AT 15/0900 UTC AND IS GENERALLY MOVING NW OR 305 
DEG AT 9 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1006 MB. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS TO TRYING BAND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE 
LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 102W AND HAS 
BEEN MOVING W AT 18 KT OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. A SLIGHT 
ENHANCEMENT OF THE ITCZ CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 08N TO 11N. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 12N109W TO 10N114W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
TO THE N OF 04N E OF 79W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 06N93W TO 09N99W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W 
AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 32N117W TO 14N130W WITH 
EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONES AT 32N123W AND 20N131W. A BAND OF UPPER 
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 32N136W 
TO 24N140W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 16N W OF 
120W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN OLD 
MEXICO NEAR 31N108W...AND HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A 
CREST AT 20N124W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 21N114W 
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ERODING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE N. A SECOND SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS AT
16N117W AND IS ALSO MOVING W WITH TIME. THESE CYCLONES APPEAR TO 
HAVE SPLIT THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICS...ALLOWING A SMALL 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER HURRICANE CARLOS. 

AN UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SE PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM  
16N88W TO 07N98W THEN CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 100W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICS FROM 
THE ITCZ TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 92W...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE SPREADING S IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

GAP WINDS...EASTERLY TRADES AT 15 TO 25 KT...WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO FOR AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS AND 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 
10 FT SPREADING N OVER THE WATERS S OF 10N W OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
NELSON