000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 10.4N 116.6W AT 11/1500 UTC 
IS MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER 
THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
CARLOS IS CONSOLIDATING WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
ORGANIZED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
CENTER. ADDITIONAL BANDING FEATURES ARE NOTED WITHIN 240 NM IN 
THE S SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE STORM. 
CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE THIS EVENING AND 
REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 04N ALONG 102W AND IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 
12N TO 15N. IN ADDITION SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING WAS NOTED ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS.  

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N85W TO 11N101W TO 
09N107W TO 12N112W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY SHARP MAINLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS N OF 10N ALONG 
128W. AN EMBEDDED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N128W 
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BLANCA...LOCATED NEAR 25N127W. MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE 
IS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N130W TO 
31N128W AND WAS BEING PULLED NWD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT NW OF THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW IN THE 
NW SEMICIRCLE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE 
REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS NW AND DISSIPATES WITHIN 48 HOURS. 

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WAS FILLING AND LIFTING NWD AT 20 KNOTS. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED OVER TEXAS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE N OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS NEAR 18N116W...PLACING  
CARLOS IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CARLOS IS REMAINING OVER THE 
AREA FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING 
IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 105W AND HAS BEEN 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS AND ALONG 
THE ITCZ TO THE E OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS. THE RESULTANT UPPER 
DEBRIS MOISTURE COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE PACIFIC E OF 108W.

GAP WINDS...FRESH E TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KNOTS 
ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. 

$$
COBB