000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 11N100W TO 14N110W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 
11N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
NEAR 08N89W AND 08N98W.  

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STARTING TO CUT-OFF NEAR 32N124W...AS 
STRONG JET ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. 
THIS FEATURE IS PART OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST 
TOWARD 25N130W. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE REACHING THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA LATE THU WHILE A RIDGE WILL BUILD WWD ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR 
18N135W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 
35N150W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 
20N112W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS 
MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 130W. ALSO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ANDRES...OVER THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 25N AND 
E OF 116W TO THE COAST OF BAJA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE 
COMPUTER MODELS TO STRENGTHEN ON FRI INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS 
ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS GENERALLY N OF 25N W OF 115W.

FARTHER SOUTH...A 1010 MB LOW PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ 
NEAR 11N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO 
REVEALS A CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 12N117W. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL 
MODELS...THESE LOWS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT A TROUGH 
OF LOW PRES WILL PERSIST EXTENDING FROM 17N115W TO 12N118W TO 
10N122W. SW WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS.

FARTHER EAST ALONG THE ITCZ...WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED 
NEAR A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
THE EPAC ALONG 89W/90W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 110W.  
 
$$
GR