000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230307 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 103.1W OR ABOUT 115 MILES SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS AND ABOUT 225 MILES SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 23/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2 WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SYSTEM THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS EVIDENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT IS DEEPENING QUITE IMPRESSIVELY ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM JUST A FEW HOURS AND LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT AN EYE TYPE FEATURE MAY BE TRYING TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. THE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND AROUND THE CENTER. THIS CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AS NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE ...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N104W TO 16N106W. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE AS ANDRES MOVES CLOSE TO THE WARNING AREA DESCRIBED IN THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 14N97W ...THEN RESUMES AT 12N106W 10N115W 12N124W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS N OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 93W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N118W SE TO A COL REGION NEAR 16N116W. A STRONGER DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N131W AND EXTENDS TO SW OF THE AREA AT 25N140W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT S OF THIS TROUGH...AND W OF THE WEAK TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 16N125W. A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO SW OF THE AREA AT 13N140W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 16N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLANKET OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW N OF 20N W OF 115W. THE FLOW AROUND A ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N123W IS DRAWING ITCZ MOISTURE BETWEEN 125W-135W ALONG WITH THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR 11N127W NWD TO NEAR 15N BEFORE IT EVAPORATES IN THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NE...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM WNW OF ITS CENTER. THE LOW HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N136W AND CONTINUES SE TO NEAR 25N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES WITH THE ITCZ MAINTAINS NE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 16N-24N W OF 127W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE 24 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LIKEWISE...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 26N E OF 125W AS WAS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY... AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE AREA BETWEEN 120W-128W N OF 28N IN 48 HOURS. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SW TO THE COL REGION REGION IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT S OF 18N BETWEEN 96W-107W... AND IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. STRONG NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT S OF 10N ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL ITCZ MOSITURE ALONG WITH THAT FROM ANDRES SWD. AS CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM 10N-21N W TO NEAR 117W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE