000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N85W TO 11N95W TO 05N110W TO 09N135W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...1019 MB SURFACE PRES IS REMAINING STATIONARY NEAR 
28N127W...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 
27N130W TO 25N136W...THEN STATIONARY TO 23N140W. THE FRONT IS 
RELATED TO A DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION NEAR 38N136W. A WEAK 
SECONDARY SURGE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 30N132W TO 
28N140W...ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY 15 KT 
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE.  THE FRONT WILL STALL AND 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE THE ASSOCIATED 
CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF THE AREA REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE MAIN 
IMPACT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A SMALL SWATH OF NORTHERLY WINDS 
OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THAT WILL REACH 20 KT INTO LATE THIS 
WEEK. 

S OF 20N...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 135W FROM 05N TO 
11N...ON THE SE SIDE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 
16N140W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF TH E UPPER LOW 
IS ENHANCING AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING 
FURTHER ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DELIVERED BY A BAND OF 
20 KT TRADE WINDS SHOWING UP ON A 1430Z QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM 11N 
TO 16N W OF 127W. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 
1019 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N127W. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 07N99W...ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N96W TO 05N101W. 
ONLY MODEST CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THIS LOW PRES...GENERALLY 
DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG WESTERLY 
SHEAR. FURTHER EAST...A 16Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY 15 KT GAP 
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT...DUE TO A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.


$$
CHRISTENSEN