000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W 01N104W 04N122W 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W AND 93W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY.  A 1035 
MB HIGH CENTERED AT 37N 143W NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE N TO NE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN THE PACIFIC WEST 
OF BAJA AS WELL AS WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  A WEAK... 
NON-CONVECTIVE SWIRL IS OBSERVED JUST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  EVEN THE ITCZ IS NONDESCRIPT AND ILL-DEFINED WITH 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOUND NEAR 90W AND 135W.  NO 
GALES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN OUR AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY.  ONE ITEM WORTH WATCHING IS WHETHER THE CURRENT 
45 KT GALE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
WILL INDUCE A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  NONE 
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT TEHUANTEPECER...BUT A 
BRIEF 20 KT EVENT HAS BEEN INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
TO POSSIBLY OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING. 

OF NOTE JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...THERE IS A PROMINENT ITCZ IN 
THE SOUTH PACIFIC STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM 5S85W TO 3S135W WITH A 
SIZABLE FLAREUP OF CONVECTION NEAR 120W.  INDEED...THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ THAN ITS COUNTERPART NORTH OF 
THE EQUATOR.  WHILE NOT UNCOMMON TO HAVE A SOUTH PACIFIC ITCZ 
THIS TIME OF YEAR...FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTH 
HEMISPHERE ITCZ IS NOT LIKELY.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW IS OBSERVED NEAR 
25N143W.  A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL JET OF 90 KT OUT OF 
THE WEST IS OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW ALONG 20N WEST OF 
130W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OCCURS 
WEST OF 120W INDUCED BY THE FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW AS WELL AS 
OUTFLOW FROM THE ITCZ NEAR AND WEST OF 140W.  IN GENERAL...LARGE 
SCALE DESCENT IS DOMINATING THE REGION AS IT TYPICALLY DOES THIS 
TIME OF YEAR.     

$$
LANDSEA