000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 05N88W TO 01N102W TO 04N132W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 10W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 
135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N132W TO 16N140W.  JET CORE 90 
KT ROTATES AROUND TROUGH BASE AT 13N ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO LARGE SWATH HEADED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN HALF OF 
MEXICO.  DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 110W 
SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES NE AND FLATTENS 
RIDGE CREST LEAVING ZONAL FLOW N OF 20N BY WED.  RIDGE MAINTAINS 
DRY AIR MASS UNDER ITS UMBRELLA DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 10N102W.  

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY HIGH PRES 1035 MB CENTERED AT 35N135W 
HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N110W.  HIGH PRES SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY 
OR DRIFT SLIGHTLY W AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH SHIFT ITS PATH NE.  RIDGE ENHANCING NW FLOW ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALTHOUGH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF AREA HAVE 
DIMINISHED...LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS STILL LINGER AND SPREAD 
S INTO E PAC REACHING AS FAR S AS 07N W OF 112W. 

GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PANAMA WINDS FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20 KT 
BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD WED.

$$
WALLY BARNES