000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
02N100W TO 02N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ. HOWEVER...THERE IS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 35 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 89W TO 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N125W TO 10N140W. 
THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPAND 
A EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO 
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THIS AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS 
OF 20 KNOTS FROM ABOUT 25N TO 30N AND TO 25 KNOTS NORTH OF 30N. 
STRONG SURFACE HIGH WELL WEST OF THE AREA COUPLED WITH STRONG 
LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 46N134W IS PRODUCING 
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NW OF THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE 
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE FAR 
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST 
HALF OF THE AREA. A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 15N140W TO 25N128W TO BEYOND 32N125W. INCLUDED WITHIN 
THIS AREA IS A BAND OF MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOUT 200 NM 
ACROSS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN.

THE AREA EAST OF 130W SOUTHEAST OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION 
WITHIN THE ITCZ MENTIONED ABOVE.

A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N128W TO 20N135W TO 16N140W. THIS IS 
A FEATURE THAT WILL WEAKEN AS OTHER SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATE 
THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS 
NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED. 

GAP STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE MONDAY THEN 
FALL TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE TUESDAY.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH 20 TO 
25 KNOTS INCREASING IN BOTH AREA AND STRENGTH SOME DURING MONDAY.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA OF NEAR 20 KNOTS 
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT DURING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
LL