000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
01N111W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 
10N BETWEEN 127W AND 137W...AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 895W AND 
95W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER MEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A QUASI-STATIONARY CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N135W SOUTHWARD THROUGH
32N135W TO JUST NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 132W IS MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KT AND IS 
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE BROAD RIDGE NOTED BELOW. 
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF 
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED RAIN WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N130W 
TO BEYOND 32N120W. THIS MOISTURE EMANATES FROM DIFFLUENT UPPER 
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH NOTED 
ABOVE. THE LARGE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES OR SMALL CUTOFF LOWS MOVING THROUGH 
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. 
THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE CONVECTION THAT HAS 
SUPPLIED SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS WEAKENED.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A BROAD 
RIDGE. CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 84W TO 94W IS INTRODUCING 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR 
THE BIG BEND OF THE RIO GRANDE TO 00N125W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
WITH SOME MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF 
20N AND SOUTH OF THE MOISTURE PLUME MENTIONED IN THE FIRST 
PARAGRAPH. THIS MOISTURE IS ALSO EMANATING FROM DIFFLUENT UPPER 
FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LARGE TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA.

BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST 
PART OF THE AREA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH. THE 
BROAD TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
OTHERWISE A VERY WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 105W. 

GAP WINDS...
A 0044 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED STORM FORCE 
WINDS OF 50 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STORM FORCE WINDS 
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH
TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT AND TO DROP OFF TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS 
TUESDAY.

GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN AND WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP TO 20 KT ON 
TUESDAY. 

$$
COBB