000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 6N77W TO 01N96W TO 03N115W 
TO 01N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 05N85W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 05N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW 
PORTION WITH AXIS ALONG 32N133W TO 27N140W. DRY UPPER AIR IS 
NOTED NW OF THE TROUGH. E OF THE TROUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE 
ENHANCED EARLIER AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW EVAPORATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE NOTED NEAR 12N99W AND 15N116W 
WITH A RIDGE E TO 13N86W A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NW CRESTING ALONG 
POINTS 23N135W 29N123W 33N115W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE... 
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 132W AND 151W...IS 
STREAMING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 480 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 14N140W TO 28N110W WHERE THE MOISTURE ALMOST 
COMPLETELY EVAPORATES. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE 
RIDGE OVER THE AREA S OF 07N E OF 89W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SE OF A LINE FROM 26N105W TO 10N130W.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY SHIFTING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. A NEW 
GENERATION OF LARGE NW SWELLS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT REINFORCING 
THE NW SWELLS THAT HAVE ALMOST REACHED THE EQUATOR OVER THE 
WATERS W OF 110W. S OF THE FRONT...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED 
S AND LIES ALONG 26N140W TO 17N115W. THE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A 
SWATH NE 20 TO 25 KT TRADES FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 118W. NORTHERLY 
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOTED NE OF THE RIDGE AND E OF THE APPROACHING 
FRONT...AND EXTEND E TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT MON 
NIGHT AND TUE.

$$
NELSON