000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
01N100W TO 02N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 7N 
AND E OF 86W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FOUND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 136W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA MOVING SE THEN E NORTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NW 
MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CUBA AT MID 
LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED 
TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF AREA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE 
ITCZ AND WEST OF 135W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
COVER THE REGION N OF 20N AND WEST OF 115W. 

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ON 
THE PERIPHERY OF A 1037 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 36N145W ARE 
AFFECTING MAINLY THE AREA FROM 8N TO 25 N AND WEST OF 120W. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT 
AREA NOTED NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 25N PER A 
RECENT QSCAT PASS. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL COVERS MOST OF THE 
REGION WEST OF 110W. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE TO E TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
EARLIER QSCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBS REVEAL 20-25 KT FLOW 
OVER THE GAP. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY 
OSCILLATE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KNOTS TONIGHT. 

$$
GR