000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 03N77W TO 01N98W TO 01N110W TO 
03N125W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE ROCKIES 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S-CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT IS STILL WELL DEFINED OVER MAINLAND 
MEXICO...CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT...BUT IS WASHING OUT OVER 
BAJA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 26N137W IS 
PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND LIKELY EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM 
22N-28N BETWEEN 125W-137W. FARTHER S...UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE W 
SIDE OF A HIGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
115-130W. A SERIES OF DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
LIKELY DRAGGING COLD FRONTS OVER NRN MEXICO/BAJA. HOWEVER...THE 
NEXT STRONG FRONT LOOKS TO AFFECT A LARGER PORTION OF THE 
SUBTROPICS THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 
33N146W AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA 
OF NE/E 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF ABOUT 110W. 
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED OFF THE BAJA COAST. 
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE 
PRES/WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS NE 20 KT WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS 
REGIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI