000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 04N77W 
TO 01N85W TO 02N100W TO 05N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS W OF 115W....WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 
80W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TO MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT 
AMPLIFIED OVER N WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE MEAN TROUGH OVER 
NE WATERS IS CURRENTLY BEING RELOADED WITH NORTHERN STREAM 
ENERGY.  THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AS IT DIGS SOUTH 
INTO NW MEXICO BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WATERS 
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT WERE UP TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1256 UTC.  THIS FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTAL.  WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED S OF 
27N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AND WED AS A RESULT.

THE WESTERLY UPPER JET MAX ALONG 24N W OF 125W WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD OVER NIGHT TONIGHT...OVERTAKEN BY THE TROUGHING OVER 
THE SW U.S. AND NW MEXICO.  HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL 
ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE NW WATERS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID 
LATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY WED.  
THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
DEEP CONVECTION N OF 20N THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND WITHIN 180 
NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 115W.  THIS CONVECTION IS 
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS REGION WHERE THE 
WESTERLY JET SPLITS...TAKING THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE ON A 
SOUTHWARD TURN S OF THE WEAK ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N115W 
WHILE SOME OF THE WESTERLY FLOW IS DIRECTED N OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE...PASSING N OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER.  CONVECTION IS 
LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THIS REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY DIFFLUENT AROUND 10N W OF 115W FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 
20 KT TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE 1606 ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO  SHIP OBSERVATION E5U2135 
REPORTED 24 KT NEAR 10N88W AT 1800 UTC...CONFIRMING THE ASCAT 
WINDS.  COMPUTER MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS HERE 
THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY WED AS 
PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN 
UNDER THIS PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN.  SIMILARLY...THE 
WINDS OFF WESTERN PANAMA...WHICH WERE AT 20 TO 25 KT ACCORDING 
TO THE 1426 ASCAT PASS...SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DIMINISH.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK