000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 5N77W 2N95W 6N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 123W TO 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 125W. HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. DOWNSTREAM DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NEVADA 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 19N121W. A 95-110 KT JET STREAM 
EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 26N112W
WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 120 KT...THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 5N105W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH GUATEMALA TO
3N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. OTHERWISE 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N W 
OF 105W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR 
BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE ITCZ.

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N118W. A FEW 
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA E OF 
THE LOW. SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE ARIZONA MEXICO 
BORDER NEAR 32N112W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 
21N115W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH 
N OF 20N. HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N140W TO 16N115W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 15N W 
OF 115W.

$$
DGS