000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 3A 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W TO 03N98W TO 04N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 06N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 10N105W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 28N138W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS 
NEAR 35N129W. A MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ 
CONVECTION THAT FLARED W OF AREA NEAR 160W...IS NOW STREAMING NE 
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE FROM 07N158W TO 29N121W. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS 
NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE 
OVER THE WATERS S OF 07N E OF 86W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 17N105W. 
SURFACE WINDS TO THE SW OF THIS RIDGE AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 
TO 10 FT NEAR 10N140W. WINDS NW OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE AT NW 15 
TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 

GAPS...STORM FORCE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LAST SURGE TO 20 KT 
OCCURRING AROUND 14Z SUN...THEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING OVER THE WATERS FROM 06 TO 13N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 107W. PLACED A DEVELOPING GALE BOX ON MY 72 HOUR WIND WAVE 
AND SURFACE PROG CHARTS AS NEXT GALE SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 12Z ON 
TUE. NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE 
ALSO BEEN SURGING TO 20 KT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TODAY THEN 
WINDS SHOULD SURGE 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH ALL THE PACIFIC GAPS FROM 
COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA BY SUNRISE SUN...DIMINISHING LATE MON. 
BY THEN THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WITH N WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE PANAMA COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET SUN...DIMINISHING TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT MON NIGHT.             

$$
NELSON